Freshspective
Tuesday, August 15, 2023 | Issue 125
Keep up with the most recent market trends in our Freshspective updates. Discover what's influencing conventional produce, organic options, temperature controlled capacity, and floral so you can plan ahead and avoid disruption.
Conventional Vegetables
Volume from Peru continues to be tight which is keeping prices high, and it will continue like this even while the south region hits full production. Keep in mind that even with both regions in full production, volume will continue to be tight due to the extreme weather affecting the crops (el fenómeno del Niño). Compared to prior year, volume is down almost 40%. Sizing available is mostly small/standard/medium. Quality has been okay, for the most part.
Bell Peppers
[email protected]Michigan is in full swing and can support promotional volume. The Northeast is in steady volume but continues to battle the heat and rains. Weather permitting, we will have pepper in Georgia around October 15- 20th. Good to promote for the next two weeks.
Broccoli
[email protected]Georgia is done for the season. Mexico supplies are tight, making volume difficult to come by.
Cabbage
[email protected]Celery
[email protected]Celery supply is plentiful this week with all sizes readily available. Quality reports show very nice celery with no major issues reported. The primary shipping locations are currently in Salinas and Santa Maria. We expect to see good supply with promotable volume over the next few weeks. The weather forecast calls for slightly warmer temperatures with no rain this week. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for any additional information and promotional opportunities.
Cucumbers
[email protected]Michigan and the Midwest continue to produce steady volume. The Northeast is starting to see a significant number off-grades. Fall crop in New Jersey is just around the corner with fields starting around mid-September. North Carolina and Georgia are aiming to start by the middle of October.
Greens
[email protected]Greens in the Midwest are going strong. Both quality and availability are good. Look for Georgia to start up mid- to late-September. See your Robinson Fresh contact for additional assistance.
Leaf Lettuce
[email protected]Supplies of iceberg lettuce remain somewhat limited while romaine and leaf lettuces are available in good volume. Overall quality is good with occasional tip burn and lightweights reported. The primary shipping locations will be Salinas and Santa Maria. The weather forecast calls for warmer weather that should help bolster production. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for updates and information regarding availability and promotions.
Potatoes
[email protected]Volume is picking up in Minnesota and North Dakota. Idaho has now started with reds, yellows, and russets. Canada is set to begin in the next week. Finally, the fall crop is starting, and prices are adjusting accordingly. So far, quality is good from all growing regions. Russet pricing will start to settle as we get further into the harvest of the new crop. We are looking at more acreage and better yields after several down years in a row. It will take time for markets to settle further, but overall, we should see smooth sailing for a while.
Squash
[email protected]Midwest regions seem to be in steady volume while the Northeast is starting to slow down. Fall crop harvest in New Jersey and North Carolina is probably a month out. In the meantime, let's try to shy away from any promotions. Georgia squash is also looking to start around mid-September.
Sweet Corn
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Conventional Fruits
Apples
The apple market is tightening as many growers begin to wind down or finish for the season on some varieties. Pricing is moving up on many of these varieties each week as they become harder to source. The tightest items remain all Grannies, all Golden Delicious, large Galas, large Fuji, and bagged Honeycrisp. The varieties that are still showing weakness on pricing are the Pink Lady, Cosmic Crisp, and the Red Delicious bags. Expect this trend to continue as we work our way through August. We do have some good news on the horizon as the new crop looks to be larger than we have seen in a while which will provide some much-needed relief on pricing and availability. The new crop has now started to harvest on Gala and the Honeycrisp. The volumes are light this week with early strains of each variety. It won’t be until September that we will see the main harvest start out of Washington. Right now, quality is expected to be good on next season’s crop.
Avocadoes
Grower origins with fruit in the U.S. market this week into next week include Mexico, California, Colombia, and Peru.
Mexico
Total containers last week from Michoacan were 845, and 62 from Jalisco. Containers out of Mexico finally reached above 900 for the first time in close to 8 weeks and will continue to increase as dry matter has shown improvement on a weekly basis. The number of orchards available to harvest is increasing in the SICOA listing and fields above 2,200 meters above sea level are almost ready for the Loca cull. After an in-person survey of several orchards, there is the possibility of the seasonal harvest out of Jalisco producing over 25 tons per acre this season, almost double the production per acre out of Michoacan.
Key Points This Week
Increase in containers out of Mexico with availability of 48s is more common. Growers continue select cuts out of orchards 150g+ at higher prices than Loca culls. Marceña crop is showing signs of being ready.
California
Nine million pounds of California avocados are displacing fruit from Mexico, and we expect a gradual decline in total pounds from August to the end of September. California has made inroads supplying large fruit east of the I-5 highway in heavy avocado consumption markets and retailers. California growers and shippers were able to take advantage of the historically high pricing of Mexican avocados and hit Delivered Pricing Equivalence with relative ease--case in point, California 32s in South Texas markets. Big win for California shippers as they were able to capture shelf space east of California with a relatively modest crop. This will be short lived as Mexico ramps up exports and California begins to wind down its season. Ship peak dates are weeks 12-26. Market exit week is week 35.
Peru
Peru hit 12 million total pounds! The presence of Peruvian fruit in the terminal markets for shelf swaps will be greatly diminished. The current production of fruit in transit and left to be harvested has effectively been committed to programs, in essence, pre-purchased. The presence of Peruvian fruit has and will continue to have an immediate impact on the total number of pounds needed out of Mexico. The allocation of shelf space for Mexican avocados will still be impacted by Peruvian fruit as current distribution centers aligned with Peru will continue through the end of September and into October.
Colombia
Colombia hit another record milestone in total number of pounds exported to the U.S. with a 3-week total of 6.4 million pounds. This is a seismic shift of fruit being shipped to the U.S. that was originally reserved for Europe. It will be short lived as the total number of pounds that will be shipped to the U.S. will be in decline as Mexico’s crops are ready for harvest.
Dominican Republic
Done for the season! Any shipments to the U.S. will be sporadic or of inconsequential volume. The U.S. is not the first ship-to option as Mexico volumes are greater than demand now. We do not expect to see a steady week-to-week supply coming in from the Dominican Republic.
Chile
The U.S. is not the first ship-to option as Mexico’s volumes are greater than demand now. We do not expect to see a steady week-to-week supply coming in from Chile. Only a total of 15 million pounds will be shipped to the U.S. In comparison, the domestic market consumes 220 million pounds.
Bush Berries
Blueberries
Tightening as we get closer to the end of the domestic season. Good volume still coming out of Oregon, Washing, and Michigan. However, with Peru looking to be very late to start this year (late-September for most), the remaining domestic regions are going to do their best to stretch the crop, meaning some of the better, late lots will more than likely go into controlled atmosphere to extend the life of the fruit for a couple weeks and hopefully give us a clean transition to the import season.
Blackberries
Limited supplies out of California/Pacific Northwest. Mexico is done for the season. Very little is left down there but the new crop from Mexico will start in about 4-5 weeks. Mexico continues to push through new varieties and different elevations toward a full-year season. Northern California, Oregon, and Washington are supporting the industry but with limited supplies.
Raspberries
Volume is up but still limited. Mexico and California are going, with Mexico picking up in production this past week. Still limited supplies but raspberries are available for transactional sales.
Cantaloupe
Cantaloupe movement is still not keeping up with the harvest although showing signs of improvement. Several shippers reporting better movement. Arizona volume will begin to fall this week which should help with the oversupply situation. California volumes will remain steady into next week. Quality in both regions is good with good sugar, and sizing is a mix of all sizes.
Citrus
Oranges
California Navels/Valencias
Valencias are coming from California. Sizing is peaking on large sizes with 88 count and smaller being extremely tight. This will continue now until the end of the season, which will be roughly the end of September. California Navels are projected to start late this year (roughly 2 weeks later). Navels are currently having issues with Thrip damage which is caused by the Thrip bug. These issues will cause fruit in the upcoming season to be heavy to choice with less fancy fruit available. It is still too early to project sizing of the fruit, and overall volume of the crop is also too early to project. Early estimates have the crop down 10%-15% for overall volume but we will know more when the crop report comes out in early September.
Import Navels
Import navels from South Africa and Chile are beginning to get tighter as weather in both countries has affected the crop, with projections down 10% year over year. Pricing remains flat for the most part on most sizes, but deals are around on larger sizes (56 count/48 count). Given the fact that volumes are projected to be down out of Chile/South Africa, coupled with the California Valencia crop ending earlier than last year and the delay on California navels, we will see Midknight Valencias out of South Africa being a premium option for customers.
Varietals
Cara Cara Oranges
Import Cara Caras are being imported from Chile currently. Volume is steady currently, but supplies will start to tighten at the end of August. Sizing is peaking on 72/88 count.
Minneolas
Minneolas are being imported from Peru. Supplies are steady, with pricing also being steady.
Grapefruit
California Marsh Ruby is still going strong with supplies exceeding demand. Deals are out there for customers willing to make the concession for the variety. Star Ruby varietal out of South Africa are being imported currently. These are a more expensive option for customers. Good supplies, and overall quality is excellent!
Lemons
Currently available from multiple regions including Argentina, Chile, Mexico, and California. Argentina will continue for roughly 2-3 more weeks. Chilean lemons are down on imports to the U.S. this year compared to last year. Mexico has started and will have good supplies this season. Sizing out of Mexico is peaking on 140 count and smaller. We will see larger lemons extremely tight in September and October.
Mandarins
Chilean and Peruvian mandarins are in full swing with steady arrivals. Fruit is peaking on 32s and smaller with more than 50% of the crop sizing in the 36/40 sizes. Fruit will be here through October into November. South African mandarins a similar story and will be available through October.
Grapes
Look for more red varieties to come into the market this week with Krissy and Scarlet Royals beginning harvest. As Flames wind down and no real volume yet on the newer red varieties, prices will hold for good quality. The green market will continue to be priced very competitively with plenty of volume and multiple varieties in play and shippers eager to stay ahead of inventories. Expect pricing to be set for large and XL Ivory with a few proprietaries higher on jumbos. Blacks are also plentiful with a few different varieties to choose from along with some of the first Red Globes coming to market this week. The Cotton Candy crop is a bit behind due to sugar levels but are expected to pick up later this week with a very large crop expected. Other specialty varieties are available, such as Candy Snaps, Gum Drops, and now Candy Hearts. Great month to PUSH GRAPES!!!
Honeydew
Honeydew continue to ship out of both the desert region and Central California. The honeydew in the desert are mostly jumbos with a few regular 5 count. Sugar is excellent and quality is good. Some wind scarring is present. Central California honeydew are a mix between regular 5 and 6 counts with few jumbos or 8 count. The California honeydew have excellent sugar and are clean.
Limes
Region: Veracruz, Mexico
Currently, the crop is peaking on 200/230/250s. The forecast is not showing any rain. The demand for limes has been steady. According to the USDA, the crossings through Texas from last week were at 585; over the weekend, 59 loads crossed. Sizing profile is peaking on sizes 200/230/250. Size distribution is 110-7%, 150-11%, 175-17%, 200-24%, 230-22%, and 250-19%. There is a slight improvement on lime quality; however, there are still reports of lighter color. Looking ahead, uncertain volume is expected based on current weather conditions. Expect low volume to remain in August.
Mangoes
AAs we enter week 32, the region of Sinaloa is starting to receive more rain weekly. In the last few weeks, we've had some harvest delays but there is still plenty of fruit on the trees. Similar weather in Southern Sinaloa, with both regions packing mostly Kent and Keitt. Peak sizing out of Mexico is on 8/9s, followed by few 10s. We will start to see fruit size up as early as this week as we transition into Keitts.
Papaya
SUPPLY IS NOT MEETING DEMAND FOR PAPAYA IN THE U.S. MARKET! Supply conditions are improving with some surplus fruit available in the market but still at high prices. A strong Mexican internal market continues to pressure growers to keep fruit locally versus exporting. Weather is still the most significant factor affecting the crop with fruit not reaching harvest condition at the expected schedule. SOME surplus fruit is available to offer at this time for transactional sales. Majority of sizes are between 6s, 7s, 8s, 12s, with SOME surplus in small calibers. Quality is reported as good with fruit showing clean skin and little scarring, and some speckling seen on latest arrivals. The forecast is for tight supply with NO expected date for improvement. There is NOT enough supply to service demand with prices trending higher in Texas.
Pears
We are currently shipping new crop Bartletts and Bosc out of California for the next couple of weeks. Washington State is still shipping Anjou and will start with new crop Bartletts next week as well. The crop looks to be average size with good quality. Expect the pricing to start to drop as Washington starts picking.
Pineapple
Availability
Supply is not meeting demand for the U.S. market. Extremely high markets!! Use caution when engaging on pineapple sales!!!!
Growing Regions
Mexico
CURRENTLY IN FULL GAP WITH AN EXPECTED RETURN TO PRODUCTION IN EARLY SEPTEMBER! Offseason for Mexican pines will run from June 1st to August 31st with little to NO fruit available during this timeframe.
Costa Rica
Volume is improving on small-count fruit with shortage continuing to affect large calibers. Little to no surplus on large fruit available at the farms. Extreme weather and damage to infrastructure and overall drop on yields at the growing areas are keeping exportable volume low. General availability in Costa Rica will continue to remain tight with some improvement this week but still not back to needed production levels.
Quality & Condition
Costa Rica
Good overall condition with strong brix, and lower yields on all calibers.
Mexico
NO fruit available.
Movement
The USDA is showing an extremely low number this week of only 278 loads crossing for the entire continental USA versus 1,100 loads the prior year. This is over 70% less volume compared to last year, with no expectation for short-term improvement.
Forecast
NO surplus fruit available at shipping points being offered by large grower shippers. The market is much higher with good demand for pineapples at all locations with some shipping points showing small fruit being offered. Volume is expected to remain low for Costa Rica happening at the same time that Mexican supply comes to a halt as they are currently in the summer supply gap which should run from late-May to mid-August.
Strawberries
Santa Maria, California growing areas are in a transition period between their spring and fall crops and will have limited availability. While the Salinas/Watsonville, California growing regions will have some additional volume, it will not be enough to cover all the demand during this time. Oxnard growing areas will begin harvesting in September. Santa Maria, California is forecast on Wednesday through Friday to be mostly sunny, then areas of low clouds giving way to sun for the weekend. Highs are forecast in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Salinas/Watsonville is forecast for low clouds followed by sunshine. Highs are forecast in the low 70s and lows in the upper 50s. California fruit is fairly good quality, small to medium size, and occasional bruising and over ripeness.
Watermelon
Watermelons supplies are good. Indiana, Delaware, and North Carolina are going with good volume in the East. Texas is still going out of Dilley, Texas with limited supplies. Central California, Washington, and Oregon are going with good supplies. Supplies will start winding down in September.
Organic Fruits & Vegetables
Organic Apples
[email protected]This week, we are still shipping limited quantities of imports and organic apples out of Washington. Supplies are limited on most varieties and prices have risen steadily on what’s remaining of these crops. The organic Grannies are pretty much non-existent right now and we won’t get new crop until around September 15th this year. We are now shipping new crop organic Gala and organic Honeycrisp in small volumes.
Organic Dry Vegetables
[email protected]Organic dry vegetables out of California are going on peppers and other items and should be going for a couple of months. Georgia has some organic items going as well.
Organic Melons
[email protected]Organic minis are still going in Patterson, California. We are picking heavier to 6 count, and we will have supplies in September.
Organic Onions
[email protected]The organic market remains strong. Onions are now coming out of Washington State and California. We now have very good supply of our red onions out of Hollister, California and will have them through the year. The quality on them is outstanding! Yellow onions are just getting started Up North so supply has been limited.
Organic Pears
[email protected]There are very limited supplies of organic Bartletts available this week out of California. The new crop organic Bartletts out of Washington will start next week as well.
Organic Potatoes
[email protected]California market is still very strong. The yellow potatoes have finished and there are a few reds left. Russet potatoes are still very difficult to find if you can find them. There are not as many acres grown of russets this year and we will end up seeing a demand-exceeds-supply market all summer. We started to see new crop russet, red, and yellow potatoes out of Washington. The market is very strong on them as supply is limited to start.
Organic Squash
[email protected]We now are starting to see supply coming out of California and pricing has finally come down some. California hard squash has started, and we are seeing good supply on butternut and spaghetti. Our Tobias Farms program has started with acorn and Kabocha squash this week. Quality is great and we will start to see spaghetti and butternut very soon.
Organic Sweet Potatoes
[email protected]The California organic sweet potato market is running smoothly right now. There has yet to be a shortage on any variety or size right now. The market is still steady in pricing, but an occasional deal can pop up. The new crop season will start up by the end of August so it does not appear there will be a gap in supply this year.
Transportation
Produce Season Update
Cost per mile increases were 25%-30% from May to the U.S. July 4th holiday. These increases were driven by prime growing markets, especially outbound California. Since the holiday, national pricing has settled back about 50% of the increase. This period is typically a lull in cost prior to the fall harvest and year-end peak retail season.
Yellow Freight Closure
There appears to be a connection between the Yellow Freight closure in the Northeast and sustained tension post-produce season. Enough carriers turned off their refrigerated units and offered dry spot market service to support orphan freight from the closure of Yellow. This shift of refrigerated capacity was enough to sustain some market tension.
Drop Trailer Services Demand Increases
We are seeing an increased demand for drop trailer refrigerated services. Request for Proposals in July sought about 50% of services to be drop trailer which is a significant increase from historical patterns. C.H. Robinson’s refrigerated drop trailer services are growing at a rate very similar to the market demand and are available through your C.H. Robinson representative.
The contributing factors of port congestion lie with labor disruptions, larger capacity vessels, chassis shortages, container shortages, infrastructure shortfalls, consignee receiving limitations, terminal inefficiencies, trucking industry shortages, and limitations of data analytics of true cargo readiness. U.S. congestion has improved at ports in 2023. The congestion for the U.S. West Coast and the Los Angeles/Long Beach port are down 20% from 2022. The current ocean port congestion levels in the U.S. are expected to remain stable.
Panama Canal
The Panama Canal is facing challenges due to both delays and drought impacting operations. The drought has caused water levels in the canal to drop, making it difficult for vessels to pass through efficiently. This has resulted in queues of ships waiting for their turn, causing shipping schedules to be disrupted and leading to potential economic consequences. The current drought across large parts of South America is affecting global trade and shipping.
Ocean Carrier Consolidation
Fresh produce growers and shippers attempting to move cargo globally via ocean vessels are dealing with scenarios where ocean carriers genuinely dictate some markets. They dictate and determine the marketability and viability of export markets for many fresh produce exporters. Shippers are being forced to commit earlier to ocean lines to reserve space for upcoming seasons, and spot market space on vessels is nearly impossible to secure.
Refrigerated Vessel Capacity
Seaborne reefer trade is on the brink of returning to growth in 2023, with volumes set to increase by 2.1%, outpacing the wider dry cargo trade. This is due to lessening supply chain disruptors and growing reefer cargo demand. The latest Drewry trade estimates also show that all reefer intensive trade routes experienced year-on-year growth in 1Q23, expanding 2.7%. Booking SPACE on board certain vessels does still remain challenging, with new surcharges from ocean carriers like "peak season surcharges" now being added or increased, and labor shortages in logistics continuing to impact the entire global produce logistics sector. Expect tight capacity and lack of space on vessels for specific lanes like Peru to California.
Demurrage/Detention Charges
Shippers negotiating with ocean carriers or freight forwarders on perishable cargo contracts should request as much free time at destination as possible to reduce the risk of detention/demurrage charges when inspections/fumigations or drayage capacity constraints delay cargo delivery at destination. Unavoidable and unprecedented demurrage and detention charges due to delays in turning cargo at destination continue in 2023.
Refrigerated Container Rates
While demand for shipping ocean containers has lessened in the majority of global trade lanes in 2023, that's not the case for all markets. For example, South and Central America trade lanes for refrigerated cargo continue to experience high demand. The elevated rates Latin America to USA for refrigerated cargo are expected to remain at their 2022 levels through 2023. Shippers should watch for "peak season" and fluctuating fuel surcharges which are added to high rates and which ocean carriers are slow to remove.
Floral
Floral supply across the entire supply chain is abundant right now across product supply, air freight carriers, and domestic temperature-control capacity. Demand is at its weakest point of the year and won't begin to ramp until schools open in late August. As a reminder, the peak floral season and shipping period is mid-January through late-May which covers the Valentine's and Mother's Day holidays. Fresh floral product quality is acceptable overall, but surging heat indexes across most of the lower domestic U.S. can shorten product shelf life. Therefore, a well-planned, efficient, and comprehensive cold chain is a must-have when shipping this summer.